ESPC House Price Report - March 2011
08 April 2011
Overview
- In the three months to March the average house price in Edinburgh was £207,497 following an annual rise of just £77.
- The number of homes for sale is around 25% higher than would typically be seen at this time of year meaning buyers remain in a strong negotiating position.
- 33% of homes sold at Fixed Price in Edinburgh achieved the asking price, down from 40% during the first three months of last year.
- The average house price in East Lothian fell by 9% annually, however this followed a 16.7% increase during the first three months of last year.
- The average house price in Dunfermline rose by 17.5% annually and now stands at £146,708. The rise stemmed from an increase in the proportion of larger homes selling, with comparison of like-for-like sales showing more modest growth of around 3%.
- The likelihood is that in most areas the average house price will ease back in coming months before levelling off during the second half of 2011.
Edinburgh
The average house price in Edinburgh during the first three
months of 2011 stood at £207,497, just £77 higher than the figure
recorded in the first quarter of 2010.
There was some variance in the prices of specific property types
within the Capital but in most cases these simply offset changes
witnessed a year ago. For example, the average price of a home in
the City Centre fell by 11.0% but this followed a 9.6% rise the
previous year. Similarly, the average price of a four-bedroom
property in the city's suburbs rose by 11.2% having fallen by 11.7%
last year meaning that in both cases prices were within 2.5% of
2009 levels.
David Marshall commented: "Lower sales volumes make averages more
volatile meaning you can see variances like this in an individual
period. These tend to be one-off anomalies which are offset in
subsequent months rather than being reflective of a trend.
During the first half of 2010 the average house price in Edinburgh
rose, mainly due to an increase in the proportion of larger homes
selling. More recently we have seen prices start to ease back and
in most cases house values are now at, or slightly below levels
seen at the start of last year.
Buyers are enjoying a little more success in negotiations than
they were a year ago, with only 33% of Fixed Price properties
achieving their asking price so far this year compared to 40%
during the first quarter of 2010. With the number of homes selling
exceeding the number of active buyers we expect prices to inch down
a little in coming months before levelling out towards the end of
the year, whilst the number of homes sold should be in line with
that seen last year."
The Lothians
The average house price in East Lothian stood at £191,539 during
the first quarter of 2011 after an annual fall of 9%. The drop
followed an annual rise of 16.7% a year ago however meaning prices
were 6% higher than they were in 2009.
David Marshall explained: "Last year there was a substantial
increase in the proportion of larger properties selling in East
Lothian which inflated the average figure. This year we've seen the
mix of properties selling return to more normal levels which has
brought the average house price back down again. Prices are still
higher than they were two years ago, and overall East Lothian has
actually outperformed most areas in East Central Scotland since the
onset of the credit crunch."
Elsewhere, prices in Midlothian were almost unchanged with a 0.8%
increase taking the average in the region to £162,855. In West
Lothian a 6.3% drop brought the average to £153,043, but this
followed a 5.1% rise last year meaning prices were in line with
2009 levels.
West Fife & Kinross
The average house price in Dunfermline jumped sharply during the
first quarter of 2011 with a 17.5% rise taking the average house
price in the town to £146,708. The increase was primarily due to a
rise in the proportion of larger homes selling rather than an
increase in the value of homes in the area.
David Marshall explained: "So far this year houses with four or
more bedrooms have accounted for almost 25% of sales in Dunfermline
compared to less than 20% last year. Although this may seem like a
relatively small change, it has significantly inflated the overall
average.
When you look at like-for-like sales comparing the prices of
properties of similar size you see much more modest growth which is
reflective of what is actually happening in the local market. For
example, the average price of a one or two-bedroom flat in
Dunfermline rose by 3.4% to £71,941. Similarly, the average price
of a three-bedroom house rose by 3.0% from £134,719 last year to
£138,773 this year."
ESPC,
90a George Street,
Edinburgh,
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