ESPC House Price Report - January 2011
09 February 2011
Overview
- In the three months to January the average house price in Edinburgh stood at £214,222 following an annual increase of 1.1%.
- The rise in the overall average was fuelled by a change in the mix of properties selling, with larger homes accounting for a greater proportion of sales than normal.
- Comparison of 'like-for-like' prices for homes of similar size reveals that in most cases values are around 5% lower than 12 months ago.
- In East Lothian the average selling price of a home over the last three months dipped to £197,442 following an annual decline of 6.7%.
- West Lothian saw a sharp annual fall of 16.3%, although this followed a 22.9% rise last year with the average in the area still higher than two years ago.
- The average house price in Dunfermline was almost unchanged on the same period last year, with a 0.4% decline taking the average to £129,812.
- The number of homes for sale remains above historic norms allowing buyers more success in negotiations with sellers. Around three out of four Fixed Price sales over the last three months were completed for less than the asking price.
- The likelihood remains that prices will ease back by 3-5% in most areas during the first half of 2011 before levelling off later in the year.
Regional Analysis - Edinburgh
The average house price in Edinburgh during the three months
from November to January stood at £214,222 following a modest
annual rise of 1.1%. The increase was attributable to a rise in the
number of larger homes selling however, with comparison of selling
prices of similar homes revealing that in most cases values were
actually around 5% lower than they were a year ago.
In Gorgie and Dalry the average price of a one-bedroom flat fell
by 3.1% from £106,798 to £103,462, while in Stockbridge and Comely
Bank a drop of 5.2% took the average selling price of a two-bedroom
flat to £219,237. The average price of a three-bedroom
semi-detached property in the city's suburbs showed the sharpest
decline of 11.9%, although this followed a similarly sharp rise of
18% a year ago meaning prices were still above levels seen two
years ago.
David Marshall commented: "Although the number of properties
coming onto the market eased late last year supply has generally
outstripped demand over the last 12-18 months. We're now starting
to see this being reflected in house prices in the Capital, with
most areas of the city seeing prices around 5% lower than they were
at this point last year."
Regional Analysis - The Lothians
The average house price in East Lothian during the three months
to January stood at £197,442 following an annual fall of 6.7%. This
represented the lowest rolling three-month average recorded in the
area since June 2009 when the average stood at £186,860.
David Marshall explained: "In the immediate aftermath of the
credit crunch the market for family homes remained comparatively
strong, and as East Lothian has a good stock of quality family
housing the local market outperformed much of the rest of the
country for some time. Naturally no market works in isolation
though and we're now starting to see prices ease back in East
Lothian."
In West Lothian the average house price fell by 16.3% annually to
£157,451. This followed a similarly sharp rise in late 2009 though
when annual inflation stood at 22.9%.
Mr Marshall commented: "We saw prices spike in West Lothian late
in 2009 due to a small number of sales of large properties. It's
not unusual to seem some degree of volatility in regional figures
from month to month and the annual fall in the average this period
represents a return to more normal levels."
Regional Analysis - West Fife & Kinross
In Dunfermline the average house price in the three months to
January stood at £129,182. This was almost unchanged on the level
of £129,763 recorded during the same period a year ago.
David Marshall, business analyst with ESPC explained: "Whilst most
areas have seen a decline in prices, house values in Dunfermline
have been broadly unchanged over the last year. Property in the
town is more affordable than in many areas of East Central Scotland
- and particularly when compared to Edinburgh - and with buyers
today becoming ever more cash conscious this had made it an
attractive option for many. There's no question it's still a
difficult market for sellers, but this comparative affordability
has helped house prices in Dunfermline hold firm at a time when
most other areas are seeing values fall."
ESPC,
90a George Street,
Edinburgh,
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